The Honduran Conundrum

What appears to some people to be very simple is actually forbidding in its complexity.

I believe that in most American hearts there is just one set of good guys here. The good guys went too far in their solution to a genuinely dangerous problem, and now they are, even according to our government's declared standards, the bad guys.

After a too early misstep, the Obama people appear to be trying to get it right. It won't be easy, even with all of us on the sidelines cheering them on. Why? Let me count the ways!

Historically, our southern neighbors resent the treatment they have gotten from us over all these many years. From the United Fruit Company abuses to the interventions necessitated by the Cold War, they have a list of unresolved grievances. Military coups and successive dictators kept the area destabilized, and they were galled to have received little of the attention and riches we have spilled in other parts of the world. They posed no danger, ipso facto we could disdain and ignore them.

Not any more!!!

With the fall of the Soviet Union, the only threat in the hemisphere Cuba, was defanged. That pretty much ended any US efforts in the South. Only with the rise of Chavez in Venezuela and his support from Iran, China and their cohorts, did the warning flag go up in Washington. But this couldn't be a worse time for the United States. Money is scarce, our armed forces are stressed with two wars, and our earlier efforts in Nicaragua and El Salvador left substantial leftist groups who now support Chavez and Castro. To put it bluntly; we have little credibility down there! All of this without even mentioning the colossal problems of the drug trade!

We had hoped that the progress we have made on that, in Columbia primarily, would spread. That hope is put in jeopardy if we seem to support the wrong player in this. The UN, the OAS and just about everyone else it seems is on the other side, most in support of stabilitynot personalities. Still, the US is the seven hundred pound gorilla in this room and, like us or hate us, all of the parties are looking to Washington to find a workable solution.

I am no fan of President Obama's, but all of us should be watching this carefully and wishing him success in what I hope are efforts to let the good guys win in the end. We have a lot to lose if they don't.